Factor temporary forecast of socially signifi cant morbidity in Primorsky Krai

Svetlana A. Lozovskaya, Gurami Sh. Tsitsiashvili, Natalia G. Stepanko, Evgeniy I. Bolotin, Elena V. Izergina, Artur R. Pogorelov


At present, the problem of climate change and its impact on human health has become one of the central issues in the fi eld of anthropoecology. The aim of this work was to analyze the infl uence of climatic factors on the socially signifi - cant pathology of the population in regions of Primorsky Krai. The main research method was “time factor forecasting”. The “factor” approach proposed by the authors is based on the idea of predicting not specifi c absolute indicators, but morbidity level that could be higher or equal to some critical value given by the researcher. This problem was solved by the original algorithm for interval pattern recognition. Based on this method, the results of temporary factor forecasting of the critical levels for 7 indicators of socially signifi cant morbidity using four climatic, four socio-economic and one environmental factor, are presented. It is shown climatic factors basically are satisfactory and have a high quality for the forecast, while the socioeconomic and ecological factors are mostly unsatisfactory. At the same time, climatic indicators in combination with environmental and socio-economic have yielded signifi cantly better forecasting results than each single factor. The quality of the forecast signifi cantly increases as a result of the combined impact of factors with different character, and climatic factors enhance the impact of certain environmental and socio-economic factors (the phenomenon of synergism). Thus, the proposed method allows predicting epidemiological situation for the following years based on a combination of various environmental factors.

Ключевые слова

morbidity; factor approach; climate; forecasting; Primorsky Krai

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